- Precision psychiatry: thinking beyond simple prediction models – enhancing causal predictions
Making informed clinical decisions based on individualised outcome predictions is the cornerstone of precision psychiatry. Prediction models currently employed in psychiatry rely on algorithms that map a statistical relationship between clinical features (predictors/risk factors) and subsequent clinical outcomes. They rely on associations that overlook the underlying causal structures within the data, including the presence of latent variables, and the evolution of predictors and outcomes over time. As a result, predictions from sparse associative models from routinely collected data are rarely actionable at an individual level. To be actionable, prediction models should address these shortcomings. We provide a brief overview of a general framework for the rationale for implementing causal and actionable predictions using counterfactual explanations to advance predictive modelling studies, which has translational implications. We have included an extensive glossary of terminology used in this paper and the literature (Supplementary Box 1) and provide a concrete example to demonstrate this conceptually, and a reading list for those interested in this field (Supplementary Box 2).
- Triangulating evidence from the GALENOS living systematic review on trace amine-associated receptor 1 (TAAR1) agonists in psychosis
Background
Trace amine-associated receptor 1 (TAAR1) agonists offer a new approach, but there is uncertainty regarding their effects, exact mechanism of action and potential role in treating psychosis.
AimsTo evaluate the available evidence on TAAR1 agonists in psychosis, using triangulation of the output of living systematic reviews (LSRs) of animal and human studies, and provide recommendations for future research prioritisation.
MethodThis study is part of GALENOS (Global Alliance for Living Evidence on aNxiety, depressiOn and pSychosis). In the triangulation process, a multidisciplinary group of experts, including those with lived experience, met and appraised the first co-produced living systematic reviews from GALENOS, on TAAR1 agonists.
ResultsThe animal data suggested a potential antipsychotic effect, as TAAR1 agonists reduced locomotor activity induced by pro-psychotic drug treatment. Human studies showed few differences for ulotaront and ralmitaront compared with placebo in improving overall symptoms in adults with acute schizophrenia (four studies, n = 1291 participants, standardised mean difference (SMD) 0.15, 95% CI −0.05 to 0.34). Large placebo responses were seen in ulotaront phase three trials. Ralmitaront was less efficacious than risperidone (one study, n = 156 participants, SMD = −0.53, 95% CI −0.86 to −0.20). The side-effect profile of TAAR1 agonists was favourable compared with existing antipsychotics. Priorities for future studies included (a) using different animal models of psychosis with greater translational validity; (b) animal and human studies with wider outcomes including cognitive and affective symptoms and (c) mechanistic studies and investigations of other potential applications, such as adjunctive treatments and long-term outcomes. Recommendations for future iterations of the LSRs included (a) meta-analysis of individual human participant data, (b) including studies that used different methodologies and (c) assessing other disorders and symptoms.
ConclusionsThis co-produced, international triangulation examined the available evidence and developed recommendations for future research and clinical applications for TAAR1 agonists in psychosis. Broader challenges included difficulties in assessing the risk of bias, reproducibility, translation and interpretability of animal models to clinical outcomes, and a lack of individual and clinical characteristics in the human data. The research will inform a separate, independent prioritisation process, led by lived experience experts, to prioritise directions for future research.
- Improving dementia prognostication in cognitively normal older adults: conventional versus novel approaches to modelling risk associated with neuropsychiatric symptoms
Background
Studies in cognitively normal individuals on associations between psychiatric symptomatology and incident dementia have not reliably differentiated psychiatric syndromes from neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) that represent neurodegeneration. Conventional modelling often overlooks symptom natural history. Mild behavioural impairment (MBI) is a syndrome that leverages later-life emergent and persistent NPS to identify a high-risk group for incident dementia.
AimWe aimed to explore associations of MBI, and conventionally-measured NPS (NPS-not-MBI), with incident dementia in cognitively normal individuals and the cognitively normal subset with subjective cognitive decline (SCD).
MethodUsing National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center data, MBI was operationalised by the absence of past psychiatric disorders (symptom emergence) and the presence of symptoms at >2/3 of pre-dementia visits (symptom persistence). Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regressions modelled dementia incidence across NPS groups and MBI domains, adjusted for age, gender, education, race, APOE-ε4, and cognitive status.
ResultsThe sample comprised 1408 MBI (age 75.2 ± 9.5; 54.3% female), 5625 NPS-not-MBI (age 71.6 ± 8.8; 65.5% female) and 5078 No-NPS (age 71.2 ± 8.9; 67.6% female) participants. Compared with No-NPS, MBI participants had lower dementia-free survival (P < 0.0001) and 2.76-fold greater adjusted dementia incidence rate (95% CI: 2.27–3.35, P < 0.001); incidence rate in NPS-not-MBI did not differ from No-NPS (hazard ratio 0.97, 95% CI: 0.82–1.14, P = 0.687). Of those with MBI who progressed to dementia, 76.0% developed Alzheimer's disease. Similarly, in the SCD subsample (n = 3485), persons with MBI had 1.99-fold greater dementia incidence versus No-NPS (95% CI: 1.46–2.71, P < 0.001) while NPS-not-MBI did not differ from No-NPS (hazard ratio 0.92, 95% CI: 0.70–1.19, P = 0.511).
ConclusionsIncorporating natural history into assessment of psychiatric symptoms in accordance with MBI criteria enhances dementia prognostication and modelling.
- Early antibiotic exposure and risk of psychiatric and neurocognitive outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis
Background
The prenatal and early-life periods pose a crucial neurodevelopmental window whereby disruptions to the intestinal microbiota and the developing brain may have adverse impacts. As antibiotics affect the human intestinal microbiome, it follows that early-life antibiotic exposure may be associated with later-life psychiatric or neurocognitive outcomes.
AimsTo explore the association between early-life (in utero and early childhood (age 0–2 years)) antibiotic exposure and the subsequent risk of psychiatric and neurocognitive outcomes.
MethodA search was conducted using Medline, PsychINFO and Excerpta Medica databases on 20 November 2023. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and certainty was assessed using the grading of recommendations, assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) certainty assessment.
ResultsThirty studies were included (n = 7 047 853 participants). Associations were observed between in utero antibiotic exposure and later development of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) (odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02–1.16) and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (odds ratio 1.19, 95% CI: 1.11–1.27) and early-childhood exposure and later development of ASD (odds ratio 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01–1.40), ADHD (odds ratio 1.33, 95% CI: 1.20–1.48) and major depressive disorder (MDD) (odds ratio 1.29, 95% CI: 1.04–1.60). However, studies that used sibling control groups showed no significant association between early-life exposure and ASD or ADHD. No studies in MDD used sibling controls. Using the GRADE certainty assessment, all meta-analyses but one were rated very low certainty, largely owing to methodological and statistical heterogeneity.
ConclusionsWhile there was weak evidence for associations between antibiotic use in early-life and later neurodevelopmental outcomes, these were attenuated in sibling-controlled subgroup analyses. Thus, associations may be explained by genetic and familial confounding, and studies failing to utilise sibling-control groups must be interpreted with caution. PROSPERO ID: CRD42022304128
- Personality disorders
An overview of changes in the classification of personality disorders from ICD-10 to ICD-11 is presented. The new classification incorporates a dimensional approach centred on severity with five domains available to describe personality pathology. The potential clinical utility of the new approach is discussed.
- Consistent evidence that brain serotonin 2A receptor binding is positively associated with personality-based risk markers of depression
Background
Using [18F]altanserin, a serotonin 2A receptor (5-HT2AR) antagonist Positron Emission Tomography (PET) tracer, a positive association between cortical 5-HT2AR binding and the inward-directed facets of neuroticism has been demonstrated in healthy individuals. Psilocybin, a 5-HT2AR agonist, shows promise for the treatment of depression, reducing neuroticism and mood symptoms potentially via hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) modulation. 5-HT2AR and neuroticism are both modulated by HPA axis function.
AimsIn this study, we examined whether the association between 5-HT2AR binding and the inward facets of neuroticism can be replicated in an independent healthy cohort using the new 5-HT2AR agonist tracer [11C]Cimbi-36, and if their association is moderated by cortisol awakening response (CAR), an index of HPA axis function. If so, this could advance mechanistic insights into interventions that target the 5-HT2AR and reduce neuroticism.
MethodEighty healthy volunteers underwent [11C]Cimbi-36 PET scans and completed the NEO personality inventory (NEO-PI-R) for the assessment of neuroticism. Salivary samples were available for determination of CAR in 70 of the participants. Using linear latent variable models, we evaluated the association between 5-HT2AR binding and inward facets of neuroticism, namely depression, anxiety, self-consciousness and vulnerability to stress, and whether CAR moderated this association.
ResultsThe study confirms the positive association between 5-HT2AR binding and the inward facets of neuroticism (β = 0.01, 95% CI = [0.0005: 0.02], P = 0.04), and this association is independent of CAR (P = 0.33).
ConclusionsThe findings prompt consideration of whether novel interventions such as psilocybin that actively targets 5-HT2AR and causes changes in personality could be particularly beneficial if implemented as a targeted approach based on neuroticism profiles.
- The Early Youth Engagement (EYE-2) intervention in first-episode psychosis services: pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial and cost-effectiveness evaluation
Background
Early intervention in psychosis (EIP) services improve outcomes for young people, but approximately 30% disengage.
AimsTo test whether a new motivational engagement intervention would prolong engagement and whether it was cost-effective.
MethodWe conducted a multicentre, single-blind, parallel-group, cluster randomised controlled trial involving 20 EIP teams at five UK National Health Service (NHS) sites. Teams were randomised using permuted blocks stratified by NHS trust. Participants were all young people (aged 14–35 years) presenting with a first episode of psychosis between May 2019 and July 2020 (N = 1027). We compared the novel Early Youth Engagement (EYE-2) intervention plus standardised EIP (sEIP) with sEIP alone. The primary outcome was time to disengagement over 12–26 months. Economic outcomes were mental health costs, societal costs and socio-occupational outcomes over 12 months. Assessors were masked to treatment allocation for primary disengagement and cost-effectiveness outcomes. Analysis followed intention-to-treat principles. The trial was registered at ISRCTN51629746.
ResultsDisengagement was low at 15.9% overall in standardised stand-alone services. The adjusted hazard ratio for EYE-2 + sEIP (n = 652) versus sEIP alone (n = 375) was 1.07 (95% CI 0.76–1.49; P = 0.713). The health economic evaluation indicated lower mental healthcare costs linked to reductions in unplanned mental healthcare with no compromise of clinical outcomes, as well as some evidence for lower societal costs and more days in education, training, employment and stable accommodation in the EYE-2 group.
ConclusionsWe found no evidence that EYE-2 increased time to disengagement, but there was some evidence for its cost-effectiveness. This is the largest study to date reporting positive engagement, health and cost outcomes in a total EIP population sample. Limitations included high loss to follow-up for secondary outcomes and low completion of societal and socio-occupational data. COVID-19 affected fidelity and implementation. Future engagement research should target engagement to those in greatest need, including in-patients and those with socio-occupational goals.
- Investigating whether offshore immigration detention and processing are associated with an increased likelihood of psychological disorders
Immigration policies designed to deter people from seeking asylum are gaining traction in many Western nations, with the UK recently attempting to establish an offshore immigration processing centre in Rwanda. This letter outlines emerging evidence from Australia on the negative long-term psychological effects of offshore processing on people seeking asylum.
- Schizophrenia – new treatments soon
Antipsychotic medications targeting dopamine receptors were identified 70 years ago. Recent clinical trials have shown that agonists of muscarinic acetylcholinergic receptors can improve both psychotic and negative symptoms in schizophrenia. Here, this new approach to the treatment of schizophrenia is reviewed in anticipation of the drugs being licensed clinically.
- Associations of schizophrenia with arrhythmic disorders and electrocardiogram traits: genetic exploration of population samples
Background
An important contributor to the decreased life expectancy of individuals with schizophrenia is sudden cardiac death. Arrhythmic disorders may play an important role herein, but the nature of the relationship between schizophrenia and arrhythmia is unclear.
AimsTo assess shared genetic liability and potential causal effects between schizophrenia and arrhythmic disorders and electrocardiogram (ECG) traits.
MethodWe leveraged summary-level data of large-scale genome-wide association studies of schizophrenia (53 386 cases, 77 258 controls), arrhythmic disorders (atrial fibrillation, 55 114 cases, 482 295 controls; Brugada syndrome, 2820 cases, 10 001 controls) and ECG traits (heart rate (variability), PR interval, QT interval, JT interval and QRS duration, n = 46 952–293 051). We examined shared genetic liability by assessing global and local genetic correlations and conducting functional annotation. Bidirectional causal relations between schizophrenia and arrhythmic disorders and ECG traits were explored using Mendelian randomisation.
ResultsThere was no evidence for global genetic correlation, except between schizophrenia and Brugada syndrome (rg = 0.14, 95% CIs = 0.06–0.22, P = 4.0E−04). In contrast, strong positive and negative local correlations between schizophrenia and all cardiac traits were found across the genome. In the most strongly associated regions, genes related to immune and viral response mechanisms were overrepresented. Mendelian randomisation indicated that liability to schizophrenia causally increases Brugada syndrome risk (beta = 0.14, CIs = 0.03–0.25, P = 0.009) and heart rate during activity (beta = 0.25, CIs = 0.05–0.45, P = 0.015).
ConclusionsDespite little evidence for global genetic correlation, specific genomic regions and biological pathways emerged that are important for both schizophrenia and arrhythmia. The putative causal effect of liability to schizophrenia on Brugada syndrome warrants increased cardiac monitoring and early medical intervention in people with schizophrenia.
- Taming the Chimaera–Hydra: disconnecting from the net to fortify our mental health
In our ever digitalising society, our engagement with the online world has significant potential to have a negative impact on our mental health. Although the roles of public health and psychiatry are debated, clinicians are in a strategic position to assess usage and intervene, to prevent harms from problematic engagement with the internet.